Sunday, September 20, 2009
Iran and its Nuclear Threat
Let's project out a few years from 2009. Iran and its mad President create their first atomic bomb, small, yet can be mounted onto one of their mid-range rockets. Iran's press tells the world press of this event makes Iran part of the nuclear club. Iran's surrounding neighbors are very concerned and turn to the US and Europe for assurances they will be there if attacked. Iran decides to test its new influence modestly making demands from other nations using its "threat of nuclear attack" dialogue. Most fail. No nation bites at such threats since the West is nearby.
Israel, of course, must do something about this, but what exactly? At best, conduct a secret, covert air attack which requires them to have access to either Iraq's or other Arab nation's air space. The US may or may not allow them, but even if the attack occurs, the problem of which of many nuclear reactors to hit is paramount and unknown. Not effective, which would provoke Iran in using it.
A stalemate will probably occur on both sides. Iran, having achieved its goal now has the problem of defending it from sabotage or attacks and what to do with it. Do they simply use it like a threatening sword at the world to get its way? Do they be so bold to use the few created to obliterate Israel or shock Europe? Would they even be able to launch them with all spy satellites pointing at Iran? You know, as soon as intelligence indicated a nuke was the payload aboard the rocket, countermeasures would commence. Iran also has to worry about its own population of 30 million under 35 years, most not completely brainwashed by the rhetoric.
Recent mass demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere show the young Iranians are angry at the fraud, being told what to wear, what to say, what to believe, how to live, and the recent fraudulent voting that has divided the ruling party. Many of the young look at the rulers, the old men, as their ball and chain that prevent them from truly being free as those Iranians living out of the country. Just as the young fundamentalists viewed the US and the Shah of Iran back in 1979 as their "ball and chain", today's Internet savvy young Iranians may be able to bring a change from within to make Iran a more open and moderate society that the West would embrace. Iranian culture and people are warm and friendly, a far cry from the ruling government of a mad man and old men resistant to modern times. Many Iranians value what the West has to offer privately.
While the Iranian public would feel proud about having a nuclear weapon, many would not approve how its leaders use it or plan to use it. Few would say "attack" because of the retaliation factor both militarily and economic from the World. Iran would be isolated and would collapse once its own people rebelled. It has happened. That was in 1979. The ruling party now has this occurring on a small scale and recall back when the Shah was tossed out. They are careful not to be overly heavy handed. Maybe Iran's nuclear attack would provoke a government overthrow even more, another coup d' etat. Clearly, it is a consideration for them.
Iran with a nuke would refrain from a first strike on their part. Too much to lose and little to gain. Thus, once the shock effect wore off, it would be back to political postering by them and others. No country wants to be the first to use it without some sort of major provacation. Few think Iran really has global ambitions akin to Hitler and Europe. But even a regional ambition like this would create a world war if the correct octane and emotion allowed it.
Iran with a nuke may just have a "ball and chain" impact on its governing body. It is a pandora's box for them and the world. One mis-step at the wrong time might prove to be deadly.