Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Iranian Swarming and its Potential

The recent events in the Straits of Hormuz between Iranian attack boats and the US Navy may be a clue of things to come at some point in time. Iran could create a major crisis by cutting the narrow 20 mile wide entry into the Persian Gulf. Using their 3000 Chinese made mines, many of the EM-58 type (rocket propelled), these can be easily laid in deep water. Once in place, ships moving over them are dead, they have a 80% success rate. Swarming single USN ships with up to 20 speedboats armed with weapons and explosives from divergent directions simulaneously might overload the ability of the ship's weapons to defend itself. In fact, some would get through. And, if that was not enough, Iran has perhaps 50 -60 cruise missiles from the Chinese, these are not rejects, but the S-300 and C-801, 802. The latter has a 90% kill rate and there is no real defense against them.

The issue is why are they obtaining these weapons? Self defense? Come on, they know the US would never be able to invade the country and air attacks are more symbolic than of value. Why do they have 12 mini subs all capabale of laying mines and torpedoes?

The only reason is take some sort of offensive action in the Persian Gulf, at some point in time. Let's say they sink a few USN ships or begin attacking oil tankers or they mine the Straits of Hormuz. In all cases, the world oil skyrockets. Besides being isolated, and they already are, what could the US do about it besides make some symbolic air to ground attacks on iranian facilities? Nothing.

Bombing Iran may not be as safe as it was, they have acquired some 29 TOR M1 Russian air defense missile systems. Their early warning would react.

The only hope is that once the US does make some air attacks upon Iran, the local population (50% are under 30)would not like this and attempt some sort of overthrow of the government. The change would have to come from within because isolation has not worked well and the US does not have capacity nor interest in invading Iran. Such an invasion would only reinforce their resolve.

Stay tuned... the next war or battle will be in that area.

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